Larry King: I'm having this conversation with you on a computer, and I'm wondering if e-mail is going to replace the post office in the future.
Bill Gates: E-mail2 won't replace the post office, but it will replace a lot of paper the post office carry around today.
King: Do you worry your child won't learn handwriting skill because there's always a keyboard3 and a printer4 nearby?
Gates: When I was in school, I always felt it was unfair that kids who happened to have bad handwriting were given a lower grade as punishment. Obviously, everybody needs to learn basic writing skills. We want our kids to have basic communication skills. I'm a lot more concerned that kids who only use calculators5 and never learn to do multiplication6 and division7 by hand may fail to grasp the basics of mathematics.
King: Will there be any use for pencils and paper?
Gates: People will use pencils and paper for a long time but they won't use them as much as they do now.
King: Tell me how a computer will be used in the average home thirty years from now.
Gates: You'll have lots of thin flat screens8 covering the walls of your house and you'll carry a hand-held device9 around with you. The screens will feed whatever visual information you want—live video10 from a place in the world you like, an art reproduction, or maybe a stock ticker11.
King: What happens when the power goes out12?
Gates: We're very dependent today on electricity and we still will be in fifty years. If there's a power failure, you won't get much work done, although battery13 technology will improve enough that short power failures won't necessarily shut down14 all of your computers.
King: Are we going to get television and news and entertainment15 from the Internet rather than from cable TV in the house?
Gates: News and entertainment will be delivered from the Internet to cable television and telephone connections16 in our homes. We'll access17 this information using a variety of devices, some of which will resemble18 today's televisions.
King: Will a person be able to work in the future without having any computer skills?
Gates: There will still be jobs for people without computer skills, but a smaller percentage than exist today. The proportion19 of the workforce that lacks computer skills will decrease20 as people not having those skills get retrained or retire21. Most young people have computer skills or at least an enthusiasm22 to get them.
King: Describe an office in the future. Telephone? Fax machine? Conference room? Will there be an office building?
Gates: The key element of the office of the future is that it will have lots of flat screens, just like your house will. And these screens are going to be everywhere once they get thin enough, cheap enough, and high enough in quality. You'll carry around a lightweight23 screen the way you carry a wallet or cell phone24 or newspaper today.
The notion of a fax will disappear because documents will be delivered electronically without having to pass through the intermediate stage of being printed on paper. If the recipient25 wants to read it on paper, she'll print it. “Telephone” refers to an audio-only electronic communication26 link, and we'll continue to have this kind of connection. But I think audio-only communication will be the exception rather than the rule. Communications will usually involve videoconferencing27, collaborative28 on a document, or some other kind of data interchange beyond audio alone29. We'll have conference rooms, but some of the participants30 in a conference may be in other places and connected electronically. Some will participate from home when being face-to-face isn't important. Office buildings and even cities may lose some of their importance because the Internet and corporate intranet31, or internet-type networks32 linking employees within a company, will enable workers to communicate, share information, store data, and work together regardless of where they are.
莱利·金：这次我想与您谈谈电脑，我想知道未来电子邮件会取代邮局吗？
比尔·盖茨：电子邮件不会取代邮局，但会取代邮局现在运送的大量纸张。
莱利·金：因为手边总是有键盘和打印机，您担心您的孩子不好好学写字吗？
比尔·盖茨：我上学那会儿，就一直认为用低分来惩罚书写不佳的孩子这一做法不公平。显然，人人都需要学会基本的书写技巧。我们还需要孩子们具有基本的交流技能。我更担心的是只会使用计算器而从不动手乘除的孩子连基本的数学都不会。
莱利·金：未来铅笔和纸张还会有用武之地吗？
比尔·盖茨：人们还会在相当长的一段时间里用到铅笔和纸张，但不像现在用得这么多。
莱利·金：说说看三十年后普通家庭是如何使用电脑的。
比尔·盖茨：那时家里的四壁都会装有许多超薄平面显示屏，你会随身携带一个便携装置。这些屏幕会把你需要的各种可视信息提供给你——比如你需要的世界任何一个地方的实时录象，艺术复制品，或者股票实时行情。
莱利·金：要是停电了会发生什么后果？
比尔·盖茨：现在我们对于电的依赖性很强，未来五十年内仍然如此。虽然蓄电池技术会有所发展，短暂的停电不一定导致所有的电脑关机，但如果出现停电，许多工作就干不了。
莱利·金：未来我们会从因特网收看电视、新闻和娱乐节目而不是通过有线电视吗？
比尔·盖茨：因特网会把新闻和娱乐节目发送到家里的有线电视和电话通讯线上，我们可以用许多装置来存取这些信息。有些装置类似于今天的电视机。
莱利·金：如果一个人不具备电脑技术，他能胜任未来的工作吗？
比尔·盖茨：未来仍然会为人们提供一些无须电脑技术的工作，但比例比现在小。不懂电脑技术的人员比例会减少，因为不具备电脑技术的人员要么得到再培训要么已退休。大多数年轻人都具备电脑技能或至少有热情获得这些技能。
莱利·金：请描述一下未来办公室的模样。还会有电话、传真机、会议室和办公大楼吗？
比尔·盖茨：未来办公室的重要元素就是墙上会装有许多平面显示屏，就像未来之家的墙壁一样。一旦这些显示屏足够薄、足够便宜、品质足够好，就可以无处不在。轻便的显示屏携带起来就像你现在携带一个钱包、一部手机或一份报纸那么方便。
传真这个概念会消失，因为文件都会以电子方式传送而无须经过纸张打印这一中间环节。如果对方想在纸上阅读，他自己会打印出来。“电话”指的是单一的声讯电子联系手段，我们会继续沿用这一手段。但我认为声讯手段是未来通讯的一种特殊形式，而不是通讯惯例。未来的通讯通常会涉及视频会议、涉及文件的协作、或者涉及声讯电话不能完成的其他数据转换。未来仍然会有会议室，但有些与会者可能身在别处，借助电子手段与会议保持联系。如果碰头并不重要，有些人可以在家里参加会议。办公楼甚至城市也许会失去它们的部分意义，因为因特网和公司局域网、或类似于因特网的网络会使公司内部员工保持联络，员工不管身在何处都可以进行交流、互通信息、存储数据、共同协作。
1． CNN 美国有线新闻网
2． e－mail 即electronic mail 电子邮件
3． keyboard n． 键盘
4． printer n． 打印机
5． calculator n． 计算器
6． multiplication n． 乘法
7． division n． 除法
8． thin flat screen 超薄平面显示屏
9． hand－held device 手提装置
10． live－video n． 实时录像
11． art production 艺术复制品 stock ticker 股票行情自动接收器
12． the power goes out 停电
13． battery n． 蓄电池
14． shut down 关掉（电脑）
15． entertainment n． 娱乐节目
16． connection n． （电报、电话）通讯线
17． access v． 存取
18． resemble v． 类似，相像
19． proportion n． 比例
20． decrease v． 下降，减少
21． get retrained 得到再培训
retire v． 退休
22． enthusiasm n． 热情
23． lightweight adj． 轻的
24． cell phone移动电话
25． recipient n． 接受者
26． audio－only communication link 只有声音（没有图像的）通讯联系
27． videoconference 可视会议
28． collaborative adj． 合作的
29． 此句意为：超出声讯手段不能做到的数据交换
30． participant n． 参加者
31． corporate intranet 公司局域网
32． network n． 网络